Constellation Applies A Futurist Framework To Guide 2014 Outlook and Beyond
Constellation’s research team uses a tried and true futurist framework that looks at the political, economic, societal, technological, environmental and legislative (PESTEL) shifts ahead (see Figure 1). The PESTEL model is used to synthesize the major trends and provides guidance on how Constellation approaches its seven key business themes over the next 2 to 3 years in:
- Consumerization of Technology and the New C-Suite
- Data to Decisions
- Digital Marketing Transformation
- Future of Work
- Matrix Commerce
- Next-Generation Customer Experience
- Technology Optimization and Innovation
The strategic assumptions from Constellation’s 2014 PESTEL framework form the basis for the business theme-led research. Over the next 36 months, research from each business theme will factor these trends into the overall research agenda. The goal in 2014 is to help clients not only navigate, but also dominate digital disruption.
In part 1, the focus was on the technological trends.
In part 2, the focus is on societal.
Figure 1. PESTEL Approach Provides a Futurist Framework For Business Themes and Planning
Societal (S) Shifts Showcase the Digital Divide Ahead
Generational shifts by age and by digital proficiency will show up in force in 2014. A generation of millennials no longer seeks the same objectives as previous generations. Lack of upward mobility and opportunity sow the seeds for societal disruption. Furthermore, a fear of government intrusion along with a need for government programs creates a bipolar view on the role of government. Hence, organizations must adapt to an ever-changing array of future business models based on dynamic demographic and psycho-graphic preferences. The following five broad societal movements shape how individuals behave and play a strong role in influencing business model adoption (see Figure 2):
Figure 2. Societal Shifts Showcase the Digital Divide Ahead
- Access trumps ownership in a sharing economy. From car sharing in the late 1990s, to vacation rentals to collaborative financing, the sharing economy has been inching its way into the forefront of the consumer’s mind. Since, thought leaders such as Rachel Botsman, Lisa Gansky and Anne-Sophie Novel, have been chronicling the forces, underlying trends and players behind the movement. Key success factors in this new business model require the identification of underutilized assets, optimization of value through time slicing of access, trading on the goodwill and generosity of others and building a reputation economy. A sharing economy model is not for every industry, yet this trend may affect how products and services companies shift their offerings and business models in the next three to five years.
- Five generations of customers and workers driven by digital proficiency, not age. When discussing the future of work, most people immediately jump to the discussion of millennials, Generation Y, Generation X, Baby Boomers, post war, etc. However, under a shift to digital business, the generations are defined differently. This segmentation describes how proficient people are with digital technologies and digital culture. The five generations include digital natives, digital immigrants, digital voyeurs, digital holdouts and the digital disengaged.
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"Ray" Wang is the Founder, Chairman, and Analyst of the next generation research and advisory firm 
